Weekly Forecast: The Week Ahead
A comprehensive look at the trading week – central bank events, key economic data, and top trade ideas for major forex pairs, gold, and oil.
Where We Start the Week
Markets open with a cautious risk tone after last week's mixed US data. The dollar is slightly softer, while gold holds near record highs. These are the indicative opening levels for the new week.
Key Events & Data This Week
Markets will be driven by central bank commentary and top‑tier US data. The highlight is the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Here’s what to watch each day:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Impact | Affects |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 29 | 08:30 | German IFO Business Climate (Jun) | High | EUR |
| Mon 29 | 13:30 | ECB President Lagarde Speech | High | EUR |
| Tue 30 | 09:00 | Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (Jun) | High | EUR |
| Tue 30 | 14:00 | US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | Medium | USD |
| Wed 1 | 14:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | High | USD, Indices |
| Wed 1 | 18:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes (Jun) | High | USD, Gold |
| Thu 2 | 12:30 | US Challenger Job Cuts (Jun) | Low | USD |
| Thu 2 | 14:00 | US ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High | USD |
| Fri 3 | 12:30 | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | Very High | All USD pairs, Gold, Indices |
| Fri 3 | 12:30 | US Unemployment Rate (Jun) | High | USD |
Trade of the Week #1: EUR/USD
The euro enters the week above 1.0800, but faces a busy schedule: German IFO, Lagarde, and CPI. The FOMC minutes mid‑week could be the real driver. Our bias is cautiously bullish while above 1.0800, but a break below opens the door to 1.0740.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 1.0920 | June high / 200‑day MA |
| R1 | 1.0885 | 50‑day MA |
| Spot | 1.0845 | — |
| S1 | 1.0800 | Psychological round number |
| S2 | 1.0740 | Last week's low |
Weekly Trade Plan
Look to buy dips towards 1.0810–1.0800 with a stop below 1.0775. First target 1.0885, then 1.0920. If the pair breaks below 1.0800 on a daily close, the plan shifts to selling rallies towards 1.0840 targeting 1.0740.
Long entry: 1.0810 Target: 1.0885 / 1.0920 Stop: 1.0770Trade of the Week #2: Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by falling real yields and safe‑haven demand. The FOMC minutes and NFP data will dictate whether the metal can challenge all‑time highs near $2,480. We favor buying dips.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | $2,480 | All‑time high |
| R1 | $2,450 | Psychological resistance |
| Spot | $2,412.50 | — |
| S1 | $2,385 | Support zone |
| S2 | $2,350 | 20‑day MA |
Weekly Trade Plan
Accumulate on dips to $2,395–$2,385 with a wider stop at $2,340. Target $2,450 initially, then $2,480. Only consider shorts on a daily close below $2,350 – which looks unlikely this week.
Buy zone: $2,395–$2,385 Target: $2,450 / $2,480 Stop: $2,335Trade of the Week #3: GBP/USD
Cable starts the week above 1.2700, buoyed by hawkish Bank of England expectations. UK data is light, so the pair will take cues from USD flows and risk sentiment. A break above 1.2730 could trigger a fast move toward 1.2800.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 1.2805 | April high |
| R1 | 1.2730 | Recent resistance |
| Spot | 1.2710 | — |
| S1 | 1.2660 | 20‑day MA |
| S2 | 1.2585 | Trend line support |
Weekly Trade Plan
Wait for a daily close above 1.2730 to go long, targeting 1.2800 and 1.2840. Alternatively, a bounce from 1.2660 with a bullish candle offers a swing entry. Invalidation below 1.2620.
Breakout entry: >1.2730 Swing entry: 1.2670 Target: 1.2800 Stop: 1.2615Central Bank & Macro Themes
- Fed Minutes (Wed): Markets will scrutinize the discussion around the dot plot and any hints on the timing of rate cuts. Hawkish minutes could strengthen the USD temporarily.
- ECB Forum on Central Banking: Several ECB and Fed speakers throughout the week. Any shift in tone on inflation or growth will move EUR/USD and bond yields.
- US Jobs Report (Fri): Consensus expects +190k jobs. A strong number may delay rate‑cut expectations and boost the dollar, while a miss could send gold and equities higher.
- Geopolitics: Keep an eye on energy markets – any escalation could spike oil and support gold.
Disclaimer: This weekly forecast is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Please trade responsibly and consider your risk tolerance.
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